Lexlab’s Alfie Lagos on Market Momentum and Ad Spend Recovery
Australian ad spend showed signs of steady recovery in May, despite a 7% dip in media agency bookings. Overall spend for the year remains 3% higher than 2024, with cautious optimism building among analysts.
Out-of-home continues to climb, responsible for 15% of total ad spend and growing 4.6% in May. Conversely, free-to-air television (25% share) dropped 13%, even as major media companies like Nine Entertainment reported growth in quarterly TV ad revenue.
Analysts are waiting for a clean month, unaffected by federal election fluctuations, before confidently declaring a solid rebound. While consumer sentiment and buying intentions have reached multi-year highs, confidence in actual spending remains tentative.
Alfie Lagos, Lexlab’s founder, emphasises that the May drop is a lagging response to first-quarter disruption, not a sign of deeper trouble. He points to rising consumer sentiment indices and a modest Reserve Bank interest cut (25bp) as early markers of recovery. Lagos stresses that the government also needs to play its part, he argues a larger rate cut would send a stronger signal and speed economic momentum.
Market watchers like Magna and iProspect see June and beyond as pivotal. Streaming/video platforms are outperforming, with video up 7.8% year-on-year, and discretionary sectors like travel and consumer electronics seeing double-digit growth (+22%+). These trends mirror a shift from linear TV to programmatic and attention-heavy formats.
Lexlab adds that momentum will reward brands who lean in, marketers who invest in visibility through outdoor, cinema, and video stand to win consumers’ attention as confidence improves. According to Lagos, this moment calls for strategic leadership, not caution, businesses that act now can help shape a stronger second half for 2025.
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